Instat Index • Ice Hockey
OBJECTIVE PERFORMANCE RATING FOR PLAYERS & TEAMS
We use our own analysis methodology, which gives a fair overview of a team’s performance in a match and during the season.
Instat’s unique parameter evaluates players’ performance based on their contribution to the team’s success.
An automatic algorithm assesses every player who steps inside the ice rink. Instat takes into account the player’s actions, game situation, skater’s time on ice and impact on the team. The Instat Index determines the team’s and player’s class. It singles out leaders of the team based not only on their scoring history but also on their workload and team play.
HOW INSTAT INDEX WORKS
The Instat Index algorithm tracks events during the team’s puck possession. Our analysts created a set of key parameters, which defines whether the possession is successful or not. There are 7 positive outcomes of the possession and 3 negative. These 10 criteria help to evaluate what is the maximum result achieved in the possession.
OUTCOMES OF THE POSSESSION
- Goal. Maximum positive result
- Powerplay earned
- Shot on goal from high-scoring zone
- Shot on goal from low-scoring zone
- Face-off earned in the offensive zone
- Entry into the offensive zone
- Breakout from the defensive zone
- Puck loss in the defensive zone
- Face-off earned in the defensive zone
- Goal against. Maximum negative result.
When one team gets Instat Index points for successful possession, the opposing team loses points as it allowed the threat near their own net.
Each outcome has a coefficient. For example, when a team scores a goal in full strength – a scorer gets 6.5 points, first assist results in 2.5 points, second assist is 1 point. Each player on the scoring line gets 1 point for a team effort. As a result of puck possession, we have one player with 7.5 points, one player with 3.5 points, one player with 2 points and two players with 1 point. An opposing line which conceded a goal gets “-15” divided between the 5 players that were on the ice – this means that each skater received “-3” for the opponent’s puck possession.
If we are not speaking about the goal, but, for instance, about face-off earned in the offensive zone. The line that earns the face-off gets 1.5 points divided between all players on the ice. At full strength, it will be 0.3 for each player of the line and “-0.3” points for the line that allowed the face-off in the defensive zone.
Also, we have to decrease and increase coefficients for events that are registered within Instat Index algorithm. For example, when a player scores in power play, he gets 4 points instead of 6.5. The line collectively is awarded with 9 points. Vice versa when the team scores shorthanded goal, 8 points for goal, 20 points goes to the line that scored.
Points for each possession are summed into Instat Index for the game. One more variable influencing final result is time on ice. Player who got more than 20 minutes for the game will have his sum multiplied by 1.045. If he spends little time – less than 10 minutes – his Instat Index will be decreased as the sum of his points will be multiplied by 0.955.
After all the summing and multiplying we adapt the number according to the “level of the team”. Teams are ranked in correspondence with the result of the previous season and Instat’s expertise. For example, the winner of NHL’s regular championship initially had Instat Index of 320. These indexes are changing with each game played. For example, when Nashville Predators won the game against Arizona Coyotes (5:2) its Instat Index increased by 0.23 points. But the season 2018/2019 was not so successful for Nashville and they finished on the 8th place. As a result, the winner of the regular championship 2017/2018 had Instat Index of 310,2 on the 1st of April 2019.
Final Instat Index of a player is calculated with the following formula: sum of the points for possessions’ outcomes * time on ice coefficient + team’s reputation.
Let’s take a look at Nikita Kucherov’s Instat Index in the game against Columbus Blue Jackets (1:5, February, 19, 2019), in which he scored 2 goals and added 3 assists. For these game events he got 22.5 points. As two assists were made with one man advantage, 4 points were added instead for maximum 7 points for 2 assists. His line allowed 5 shots, 4 of which were from low scoring zones. It affected Instat Index by -2.8 points. His line and Kucherov himself made 5 shots collectively – this brought Tampa’s forward 2.2 points. Also there were 16 minor events with positive outcome. The final sum was added to Instat Index of the game (315.9) which is based on the Indexes of two teams and multiplied by 1.015 as Kucherov played more than 16 minutes. The final Instat Index for the game was 394.
How Instat Index can turn upside down your perception of hockey stars:
- Some defensemen who are not scoring tons of points are more efficient than their colleagues with 60+ points.
For example, Charlie McAvoy from Boston Bruins with 27 points had Instat Index of 323 and Keith Yandle from Florida Panthers with 60 points had 313. If we go deeper, we’ll see that Yandle’s Corsi is way lower than McAvoy’s – 28 against 152. At the same time he shoots more often – 192 against 76. It means that during one average possession which he spends in defensive zone his line allows more shots on goals than McAvoy’s. Also Yandle has an awful “plus/minus” – "-18" against McAvoy’s "+14". Add to this high Boston’s team rating and you will understand the difference in these two numbers.
- Not every superstar is in the league’s top.
For example, Alexander Ovechkin is the best sniper in NHL. But 18 of his 51 goals were scored on power play. He also added 10 assists on power play. It means that 28 points were with decreased coefficient. Also he has negative Corsi, which affected his Instat Index. As a result he is in top-30 players, but could have been much higher if there were no decreasing coefficients.